Executive Summary

The First National Communication of Mexico was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1997; three years after the Convention entered into force. Such report encompassed progress and results obtained from studies, workshops, courses, conferences, and publications on vulnerability and greenhouse gas emissions inventories. The preparation of the Second National Communication of Mexico on Climate Change started in 2000, in a very important context for the country, since the Kyoto Protocol had been unanimously ratified in a plenary session of the Senate of the Republic, on 29 April 2000. The ratification instrument had been deposited in the United Nations headquarters in New York on September 7 the same year. The document embraces the updating of the National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for 1994-1998. The Inventory figures for land-use change in 1998 would be later published as an attachment to the Communication as soon as the filed validation process of the Forest National Inventory, whose development initiated in 2000, is concluded.

National Context

Based on the Official Census 2000, the Mexican population reached a total of 97.48 million inhabitants. The 1995-2000 demographic growth rate was 1.4% annually; should the rate continue, population will mount to 112.2 million in 2010, and to nearly 129 million by 2030. Once the economic crisis of 1994-1995 (period in which the Gross Domestic Product [GDP] experienced a dramatic fall of -6.2%, with a sharp rebound in inflation of 52%), was overcome, production and employment showed a steady rise. By 1996, the average annual GDP growth rate was 5.13%, and by 1999, 3.79%, in real terms. Crude oil production increased to 2,906 thousand barrels a day. In 2000, the Mexican GDP raised to 574,445.1 million dollars, figure which broken down by sectors is as follows: agriculture and animal husbandry 4.3%; industrial 28% (manufactures 73%) and services 67.7%. From 1998 to 1999, annual increase in energy consumption accounted for 2.7%, implying a rise of 163.5 PJ in said period. In 1995, the decrease in energy consumption vis à vis 1994 consumption was 2.8%. Energy intensity in 1994-1999 showed a decrease in terms of energy consumption KJ/$ produced. In 1994, energy intensity was 4,304.4 KJ/$, and in 1999 it was 4184.2 KJ/$. In the period 1994-1998, electricity used had an annual growth of 5.58%, equivalent to 282.31 PJ.

Emissions Inventory

Transport

Energy consumption in the transport sector increased by 20% in 1990-1998. National aviation raised its energy consumption by 42%; automotive transportation consumption by 20%, and that of national maritime navigation grew by 31%. Railroad transport reduced its energy consumption by 13%. In 1998, energy consumption of international transport increased by 70% (1,737 Gg), though it only accounted for 1.6% of total consumption. The fuel with the highest demand was kerosene, for aviation. Methane emissions for this sector were 28 Gg in 1996, which meant an increase of 23% regarding the 1990 level. Nitrous oxide emissions were 7.7 Gg, 385% higher than 1990 emissions. Such increase is associated with the introduction of catalytic converters in private automobiles as from 1991. As for fugitive methane emissions in CO2 equivalents in the Oil and Natural Gas System in Mexico for 1998, fluctuations between 39,719.4 and 53,608.8 Gg were observed, accounting for an increase of 26% regarding the 1990 level.

Industrial Processes

In the first Inventory (1990) only the cement industry emissions were reported, with 11,621 Gg. In the 1998 inventory, growth corresponding to 3.8% in comparison to 1990 was observed in such industry. In the present enhanced updating of the Inventory, all items of mineral products, metal production, and chemical industry sectors were included. In 1994, total CO2 emissions of the sector were 37,108 Gg and rose to 44,346 Gg in 1998, which implied an increase of 19.5%.

Agriculture

In the 1990 Inventory, total emissions from agriculture and livestock husbandry in CO2 equivalents were 38,863 Gg, from which 97% corresponded to methane, and 3% to nitrous oxide. In the 1994, 1996 and 1998 Inventories, emissions were 57,110; 55,674 and 54,463 Gg in CO2 equivalents, 82%, 82%, and 79% corresponding to methane, respectively.

Land-Use Change Emissions

In 1996, total net CO2 emissions from land-use change were about 157 thousand Gg, resulting from the balance of 110 thousand Gg from combustion and associated decaying aerial biomass, 89 thousand Gg from mineral soil emissions and the fixation of 42 thousand Gg in managed forests and derelict land.

Wastes

In 1990, methane emissions originated by domestic wastes were 526 Gg, and 3,363 Gg in 1998. The astonishing increase was due to the use of the new IPCC methodology and to additional information which was unavailable by the time the 1990 inventory was prepared. In terms of CO2 equivalents to 100 years, CO2 emissions in 1998 were estimated in 70,619 Gg.

Mitigation Policies in the Forestry Sector

Carbon Sequestration through forest management practices is a function of accumulation and storage of biomass. The primary strategies contemplated in the land-use, land-use change, and forestry sector are: • to increase the carbon accumulation rate by creating or enhancing sinks; • to reduce the release rate of carbon fixated in existing sinks and • to reduce the use of fossil fuels and to enhance that of renewable products. Among the major recent achievements in conserving forest ecosystems are the reforestation of over 740 thousand hectares (PRONARE program), forest plantations of over 47 thousand hectares between 1997 and 2003 (Prodeplan program), and the reconversion of more than 1.3 million hectares of land oriented to agriculture and animal husbandry were planned. Only between 1997 and 2000 such reconversion actions would bring about a net capture of 3.3 million tons of carbon in the long term.

Conservation of Fixated Carbon

Biodiversity Protection

Mexico is the fourth major biodiverse country in the world. In order to protect such wealth, the surface of the national territory covered by Protected Natural Areas (ANP, acronym in Spanish) and by Units for the Conservation, Management, and Sustainable Use of the Wildlife (UMA, acronym in Spanish) has been expanded. The area covered by ANPs grew from 13.4 million hectares in 1994 to 17 million in 2000. On its part, the surface occupied by UMA was extended from 2.0 to 14.1 million hectares from 1995 to 2000.

Sustainable Management of Forests and Woodlands.

For the period 1997-2000, the Forest Development Program (PRODEFOR) supported efficient integration of forestry productive chains in over seven million hectares. With full implementation of the Program, carbon capture would be estimated in 288 million tons, from which 237 corresponded to woodlands and 27 to arid zone vegetation. In addition, the Forest Resources Conservation and Sustainable Management Project (PROCYMAF) has brought more than 116 thousand hectares into sustainable management forest schemes, and over 13 thousand hectares under a conservation system. From 1994 to 2000 a total of 61,089 forest fires occurred affecting 2,123,803 hectares, with an annual average of 303,400 hectares. In 1998, a special restoration program was implemented to re-establish original conditions of fire-affected areas.

Fossil Fuel Substitution

Firewood is still the main rural-use biofuel in Mexico. In 1990, 25.6 million people (31.4% of the national total population) used firewood for cooking. Total forest biomass (firewood and coal) demand is estimated to amount to 355 PJ/yr. Vernacular and artisanal stoves and ovens have an efficiency of only 17%, contrasting to the damage they cause to human health because of the smoke they generate. Aiming at reducing such emissions, a rural program consisting in installing higher-energy-efficiency-stoves, which is expected to reduce the use of wood by 6 million tons/year, has been implemented. Academic studies conducted by the INE during the past year, indicate that from 1995 to 2000, the set of programs and strategies in the forestry sector included actions on 8.6 million hectares, and the long-term net carbon capture may be estimated in 416 million tons.

Agriculture and Livestock Husbandry Sector.

In order to make the use of natural resources more sustainable, the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock Husbandry, Rural Development, Fishing and Food with the collaboration of the Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources, continue with agricultural, livestock and rural development programs, as well as temporary employment and training, and extension programs, among others. These are intended to improve fire-using agriculture and animal husbandry systems, to reconvert marginal agricultural land into natural ecosystems, to improve the use of crop residues and to encourage perennial crops, including agro-forestry.

Mitigation Policies in the Energy Sector

During the last ten years, the National Commission for Energy Conservation (CONAE) and the Trust for Electric Energy Saving (FIDE) implemented programs oriented to a more sustainable use of energy, among which the following stand out: thermal isolation of houses, introduction of high efficiency air conditioning equipment, substitution of 500 thousand incandescent light bulbs for fluorescent lamps for residential lighting, and the issuing of 20 Official Standards on energy saving for household appliances and other products. Energy savings accumulated during the past five years stemming from the above-mentioned programs are estimated at more than 39 thousand GWh, which implied a reduction of little more than 24 million tons of CO2. Only in 2000 the country had energy savings of 11 thousand GWh, and avoided demand for more than 2,200 MW through programs intended to improve efficiency regarding energy final use. Such figures accounted for a reduction of nearly seven million tons of CO2. FIDE was constituted in 1990. Energy savings reached by FIDE in 1999 were 1,140 MW. As a consequence of specific projects, emissions of approximately 4.99 million tons of CO2 were prevented. Among FIDE’s major projects are ILUMEX and that of Residential Lighting Incentives (Incentivos para Alumbrado Doméstico), which together have encouraged the substitution of five million incandescent lamps for compact fluorescent lamps, having a goal of 6.1 million units. Other programs that have brought about significant savings in energy are: implementation of the summer schedule, the energy saving program for public buildings, and the Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) Energy Saving Program. The latter includes consumption savings in electricity, natural gas, and other fuels. Only as a result of PEMEX cogeneration programs an annual reduction of more than 50 thousand tons of CO2 equivalents is expected. In the productive sector, development of economic incentive projects funded by the CFE and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), are considered for the acquisition of high efficiency engines, lights and compressors.

Renewable Energies

Since several decades ago, prototypes, projects, industries, and institutions related to renewable energy use in Mexico have been developed. By December 2000, there were in the country: • 345 thousand m2 of flat solar panels for water heating, from which 35 thousand m2 were installed only in 1999;• 50,000 photovoltaic systems, especially in rural areas unconnected to the national energy supply network; • 2 wind electricity generation pilot plants, one in Oaxaca with a capacity of 1.55 MW, and the other in Baja California Sur with a 600 KW capacity; • two recently granted permits for biogas exploitation and 16 for electricity generation through fueloil/sugar cane bagasse hybrid systems.

Some Research On Energy Activities

As for research, from 1990 to 1999 the Institute of Electric Research (IIE) has performed a number of studies on the potential of wind energy, solar-wind hybrid systems, and the use of small photovoltaic systems for several applications. Besides, the Engineering Institute-UNAM (Instituto de Ingeniería de la UNAM) has conducted a study to assess mitigation potential associated with different technologies and sectors, among which the analysis of combined cycle generating plants, wind electricity generating plants for the pumping of drinking water, efficiency in industrial boilers, efficient lighting, biogas management in agro-forestry, and use of methane originated from sanitary landfills, stand out.

Pollutant Release And Transfer Register (PRTR)

Preliminary estimates of the former SEMARNAP (2000) indicate that approximately four million tons of hazardous wastes, twelve million tons of atmospheric pollutants (only in urban basins), and one hundred thousand tons of toxic and bio-accumulating substances are emitted to the atmosphere. Aiming at facing such situation the former SEMARNAP implemented the Pollutant release and Transfer Register (PRTR) or RETC by its Spanish acronym. This Register is a database on emission and transfer of pollutants in different media (air, water, and soil) regarding economy sectors, and throughout the municipalities and states of Mexico. The PRTR comprises eight emission source categories, 178 pollutants related to the ozone layer depletion, air pollution in urban basins, climate change, water pollution, hazardous wastes, and toxic substances.

Research On Local And Global Pollution In Mexico City

Developing these projects is of great importance to climate change due to the relationship between air quality improvement and the required reduction of fossil fuel burning in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. The aim for the year 2010 is a significant improvement in air quality through reductions in particle, ozone, volatile organic hydrocarbon, and nitrogen oxide concentrations. The program Clean Air Initiative in Latin American Cities is supported by the World Bank and its ultimate objective is to improve the population’s health. This will be the first program to assess global impacts or implications of MCMA-emitted pollution. During the past five years, studies on atmospheric pollution with a local, regional, and global impact have been performed. Among them, the following stand out: • Analysis of Massive Use of Solar Collectors for Heating Water; • Energy Efficiency Improvement in Public and Private Buildings; • Alternatives to Reduce Liquefied Petroleum Gas Leaks in the Residential Sector; • Pilot Project on Hybrid Buses for Public Transport; • Revision of the Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Related to Energy Production in the MCMA. In the MCMA, 12% of the total national greenhouse gas emissions originate from fossil fuel burning. In the balance of energy, energy production at a local scale was only 6.5% of total energy consumed in the city in 1996. That same year, MCMA final energy consumption was 569.6 PJ. Final consumption encompassed 82.3% of natural gas, 17.4 of solid fuels (firewood and vegetal charcoal), and 0.3% of hydroelectricity. As for sectoral consumption, the transport sector accounted for 49.3%, the residential, commercial and public sector 26%, industrial sector 24.5%, and agriculture and animal husbandry 0.2%. The Environmental Program for the Delegation of Tlalpan in Mexico City must be mentioned in particular. Such Program included sub-programs related to energy and water saving in the residential sector, cleaner and more efficient production in industrial and hospital facilities, as well as carbon capture, and forest restoration.

Research On Climate Variability And Climate Change

Climate is modulated by a number of complex factors and by changes in the environment (often as a result of human activity). Interactions among such elements are translated into extreme increasingly intense climate events day by day. Hydrometeorological events affect the world’s population to the greatest extent. The fact is that in recent years more intense climate anomalies than those in previous years have been observed. Some authors suggest that the occurrence of a global climate change is bringing about the intensification of the hydrologic cycle (PICC, 1996). The costs from droughts and forest fires between 1982-1983 in Mexico and Central America were estimated in more than 600 million Dollars. The long-lasting drought in Mexico that occurred throughout the past decade seems to be a consequence of global climate changes. The El Niño events are more frequent and intense since the 1980s in comparison to previous years (Magaña, 1999). In 1999 a Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for Mexico and Central America, convened by the National Communications Support Program of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) was held in Mexico. Therein, the reference terms for a project submitted to the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), through the UNDP were developed. The performance of such projects is planned for the long term, and the study on vulnerability and adaptation of these countries to climate change variability and climate change is included. As it was indicated in the First National Communication on Climate Change to the UNFCCC, Mexico is highly vulnerable to this phenomenon. From 1995 to 1996, scenarios for forests, deserts, water resources, drought and desertification, human settlements, coastal zones, etc. were developed. In 1998, a study on Mexico City’s vulnerability, aiming at analyzing a scenario of bio-climate conditions of the city in the event that CO2 concentrations doubled, was performed. With one of the models, a potential increase of 2.1ºC in annual temperature in a specific area of the urban zone was obtained. A forthcoming study on vulnerability of Mexican ecosystems will be performed by the National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (CONABIO).

Adaptation Project

Using Climate Forecasts in Agricultural Activities in Tlaxcala, Mexico was the first project in the country to use available climate information (observations and forecasts), together with an agricultural productivity model for planning and carrying out agricultural activities in the state.

Support Studies For Submitting Projects To The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Studies oriented to the operation of the forthcoming office for the mitigation of greenhouse gases and to know the advantages Mexico may have in submitting projects to the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol have been performed.

Education And Training

Bibliographic and periodicals and newspaper data on climate change has been systematized in the database of the Library Automated Information System of the University of Colima. During the last seven years workshops, conferences, courses, etc., on the subject of climate change have been delivered to national educational institutions, both public and private, to the private initiative and mass media. Likewise, the INE has held some workshops on greenhouse gas emissions baseline estimation in the energy and forestry sectors. Personnel from INE/SEMARNAT, as well as from other Secretariats, have been trained on issues such as carbon capture in the forestry sector and on emissions trading, among others, with the USAID financial support. National and international publications of Mexican experts on different areas related to the subject are numerous. In the near future, it is of vital importance for Mexico to carry out an analysis of the vulnerability assessment studies so far performed, as well as of the adaptation alternatives for the country. Soon, a study on ecosystem vulnerability will be developed, which is crucial for a megadiverse country.

Jointly Implemented Activities (JIA)

Mexico is in favor of jointly implemented activities, which are in a pilot phase. According to what was established in the First Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, in 1995, through such activities emission mitigation projects among industrialized and developing countries may be implemented. There is no accreditation on emission reduction for any Party in this phase. The first project of this type was ILUMEX, which involved improving energy efficiency by substituting incandescent lighting for compact fluorescent lamps. In 1999, the project obtained the first certificate in the world on emission reduction from energy. The results were verified and certified by independent authorities from the government of Norway and the World Bank. Between 1995 and 1998, a reduction of 171,169 tons of CO2 equivalents was achieved. The Norwegian Government contributed with three million dollars to the project. A project related to a mini-network of renewable energy in Baja California Sur, Mexico, was submitted to the United States Initiative on Joint Implementation (USIJI). The project is developed by the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) of Mexico and the Arizona Public Service, of the USA. In the forestry sector, the project Scolel Te in Chiapas, for which the institutions responsible are the Unión de Crédito Pajal, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR), and the Institute of Ecology and Resource Management of the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, was submitted to the USIJI. Other projects are: • Salicornia cultivation, in Bahía de Kino, Sonora. • Permanent Forest Repopulation in the Sierra Gorda Biosphere Reserve, Querétaro. • Sustainable Forestry in the Sierra Norte de Oaxaca. Many others are still under preparation, for example: Forest Sustainable development and Carbon Capture in the Selva Lacandona, Chiapas; Biological and Cultural Conservation in «El Carricito», in the Sierra Madre Occidental, etc. JIA projects are expected to be the first to be submitted by Mexico to the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol.

International Cooperation

Within the framework of international agreements, the Montreal Protocol is very important, since in the past ten years (1989-1999) Mexico’s contribution to protecting the ozone layer has been highly relevant. A hasty schedule tending to eliminate most ozone layer depleting substances by 2000 has been implemented. This has been achieved through the financial support of the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the active participation of the different Mexican industrial sectors. Since1993, activities are being carried out together with the InterAmerican Institute for Global Change (IAI). Besides, every year, Mexico participates in the Forum on Climate Change as well as in the Agriculture and Climate Change Working Groups of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) is working with local environmental authorities in order to prepare GHG Emissions Inventories and to detect projects on the subject. The importance of the ICLEI for Mexico resides in the fact that it has collaborated in the huge task of incorporating climate change into the local environmental agenda. The Technology Cooperation Agreement Pilot Project (TCAPP), is an initiative of the US Government, through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The TCAPP Team in Mexico is formed by representatives of the NREL, the National Commission for Energy Conservation (CONAE), and the INE. Significant advances with technologies to reduce GHG emissions have been identified, and a new consulting process for their forthcoming implementation have been put in place. Through the Border XXI Program, climate change activities will soon be incorporated. The updating of the GHG Emissions Inventories, the assessment of forest programs in Mexico, supporting a workshop on macroeconomic modeling and a project on the dynamics of land–use change in the tropical rainforest in Chiapas were performed with the financial support of the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). The World Bank provided financial aid for three studies of the forthcoming Mexican office for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions: 1) baselines in the energy sector, 2) baselines in the forestry sector, and 3) economic models. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) funded a study on emission factors of greenhouse gases originated from living systems in Central Mexico and the development of a virtual information system, 1998.